The role of phenotypic plasticity in responses of hunted thinhorn sheep ram horn growth to changing climate conditions.

When phenotypic change occurs over time in wildlife populations, it can be difficult to determine to what degree it is because of genetic effects or phenotypic plasticity. Here, we assess phenotypic changes over time in horn length and volume of thinhorn sheep (Ovis dalli) rams from Yukon Territory, Canada. We considered 42 years of horn growth from over 50,000 growth measurements in over 8000 individuals. We found that weather explained a large proportion of the annual fluctuation in horn growth, being particularly sensitive to spring weather. Only 2.5% of variance in horn length growth could be explained by an individual effect, and thus any genetic changes over the time period could only have had a small effect on phenotypes. Our findings allow insight into the capacity for horn morphology to react to selection pressures and demonstrate the overall importance of climate in determining growth.

Estimation of rates of births, deaths, and immigration from mark-recapture data.

The analysis of mark-recapture data is undergoing a period of development and expansion. Here we contribute to that by presenting a model which includes both births and immigration, as well as the usual deaths. Data come from a long-term study of the willow tit (Parus montanus), where we can assume that all births are recorded, and hence immigrants can also be identified as birds captured as adults for the first time. We model the rates of immigration, birth rate per parent, and death rates of juveniles and adults. Using a hierarchical model allows us to incorporate annual variation in these parameters. The model is fitted to the data using Markov chain Monte Carlo, as a Bayesian analysis. In addition to the model fitting, we also check several aspects of the model fit, in particular whether survival varies with age or immigrant status, and whether capture probability is affected by previous capture history. The latter check is important, as independence of capture histories is a key assumption that simplifies the model considerably. Here we find that the capture probability depends strongly on whether the individual was captured in the previous year.

Lunar periodicity and the timing of river entry in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Historical catch records of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from three rivers discharging to the Baltic Sea in an area free from tides and from strong effects of the moon on illumination were analysed to investigate whether timing of S. salar river entry was associated with lunar cycles directly. Although a significant effect of lunar phase on river entry was detected, with more fish entering rivers around the full moon than other phases, the effect of the lunar cycle was very small compared with other sources of variation. Hence, the biological role of lunar cycle as a determinant of the timing of S. salar runs in the investigated populations was negligible, suggesting that lunar cycle per se does not play a role in the timing of S. salar river entry.

Bayesian approaches in evolutionary quantitative genetics.

The study of evolutionary quantitative genetics has been advanced by the use of methods developed in animal and plant breeding. These methods have proved to be very useful, but they have some shortcomings when used in the study of wild populations and evolutionary questions. Problems arise from the small size of data sets typical of evolutionary studies, and the additional complexity of the questions asked by evolutionary biologists. Here, we advocate the use of Bayesian methods to overcome these and related problems. Bayesian methods naturally allow errors in parameter estimates to propagate through a model and can also be written as a graphical model, giving them an inherent flexibility. As packages for fitting Bayesian animal models are developed, we expect the application of Bayesian methods to evolutionary quantitative genetics to grow, particularly as genomic information becomes more and more associated with environmental data.

Climate-driven spatial dynamics of plague among prairie dog colonies.

We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the joint spatial dynamics of a host-parasite system. The model was fitted to long-term data on regional plague dynamics and metapopulation dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a declining keystone species of North American prairies. The rate of plague transmission between colonies increases with increasing precipitation, while the rate of infection from unknown sources decreases in response to hot weather. The mean annual dispersal distance of plague is about 10 km, and topographic relief reduces the transmission rate. Larger colonies are more likely to become infected, but colony area does not affect the infectiousness of colonies. The results suggest that prairie dog movements do not drive the spread of plague through the landscape. Instead, prairie dogs are useful sentinels of plague epizootics. Simulations suggest that this model can be used for predicting long-term colony and plague dynamics as well as for identifying which colonies are most likely to become infected in a specific year.

Comparative studies of quantitative trait and neutral marker divergence: a meta-analysis.

Comparative studies of quantitative genetic and neutral marker differentiation have provided means for assessing the relative roles of natural selection and random genetic drift in explaining among-population divergence. This information can be useful for our fundamental understanding of population differentiation, as well as for identifying management units in conservation biology. Here, we provide comprehensive review and meta-analysis of the empirical studies that have compared quantitative genetic (Q(ST)) and neutral marker (F(ST)) differentiation among natural populations. Our analyses confirm the conclusion from previous reviews - based on ca. 100% more data - that the Q(ST) values are on average higher than F(ST) values [mean difference 0.12 (SD 0.27)] suggesting a predominant role for natural selection as a cause of differentiation in quantitative traits. However, although the influence of trait (life history, morphological and behavioural) and marker type (e.g. microsatellites and allozymes) on the variance of the difference between Q(ST) and F(ST) is small, there is much heterogeneity in the data attributable to variation between specific studies and traits. The latter is understandable as there is no reason to expect that natural selection would be acting in similar fashion on all populations and traits (except for fitness itself). We also found evidence to suggest that Q(ST) and F(ST) values across studies are positively correlated, but the significance of this finding remains unclear. We discuss these results in the context of utility of the Q(ST)-F(ST) comparisons as a tool for inferring natural selection, as well as associated methodological and interpretational problems involved with individual and meta-analytic studies.

Bias and precision in QST estimates: problems and some solutions.

Comparison of population differentiation in neutral marker genes and in genes coding quantitative traits by means of F(ST) and Q(ST) indexes has become commonplace practice. While the properties and estimation of F(ST) have been the subject of much interest, little is known about the precision and possible bias in Q(ST) estimates. Using both simulated and real data, we investigated the precision and bias in Q(ST) estimates and various methods of estimating the precision. We found that precision of Q(ST) estimates for typical data sets (i.e., with <20 populations) was poor. Of the methods for estimating the precision, a simulation method, a parametric bootstrap, and the Bayesian approach returned the most precise estimates of the confidence intervals.

Comparing the effects of genetic drift and fluctuating selection on genotype frequency changes in the scarlet tiger moth.

One of the recurring arguments in evolutionary biology is whether evolution occurs principally through natural selection or through neutral processes such as genetic drift. A 60-year-long time series of changes in the genotype frequency of a colour polymorphism of the scarlet tiger moth, Callimorpha dominula, was used to compare the relative effects of genetic drift and variable natural selection. The analysis showed that most of the variation in frequency was the result of genetic drift. In addition, although selection was acting, mean fitness barely increased. This supports the 'Red Queen's hypothesis' that long-term improvements in fitness may not occur, because populations have to keep pace with changes in the environment.

Population structure, mating system, and sex-determining allele diversity of the parasitoid wasp Habrobracon hebetor.

Besides haplo-diploid sex determination, where females develop from fertilized diploid eggs and males from unfertilized haploid eggs, some Hymenoptera have a secondary system called complementary sex determination (CSD). This depends on genotypes of a 'sex locus' with numerous sex-determining alleles. Diploid heterozygotes develop as females, but diploid homozygotes become sterile or nonviable diploid males. Thus, when females share sex-determining alleles with their mates and produce low fitness diploid males, CSD creates a genetic load. The parasitoid wasp Habrobracon hebetor has CSD and displays mating behaviours that lessen CSD load, including mating at aggregations of males and inbreeding avoidance by females. To examine the influence of population structure and the mating system on CSD load, we conducted genetic analyses of an H. hebetor population in Wisconsin. Given the frequency of diploid males, we estimated that the population harboured 10-16 sex-determining alleles. Overall, marker allele frequencies did not differ between subpopulations, but frequencies changed dramatically between years. This reduced estimates of effective size of subpopulations to only N3 approximately 20-50, which probably reflected annual fluctuations of abundance of H. hebetor. We also determined that the mating system is effectively monogamous. Models relating sex-determining allele diversity and the mating system to female productivity showed that inbreeding avoidance always decreased CSD loads, but multiple mating only reduced loads in populations with fewer than five sex-determining alleles. Populations with N3 less than 100 should have fewer sex-determining alleles than we found, but high diversity could be maintained by a combination of frequency-dependent selection and gene flow between populations.

Genetic and maternal effect influences on viability of common frog tadpoles under different environmental conditions.

The influence of environmental stress on the expression of genetic and maternal effects on the viability traits has seldom been assessed in wild vertebrates. We have estimated genetic and maternal effects on the viability (viz probability of survival, probability of being deformed, and body size and shape) of common frog, Rana temporaria, tadpoles under stressful (low pH) and nonstressful (neutral pH) environmental conditions. A Bayesian analysis using generalized linear mixed models was applied to data from a factorial laboratory experiment. The expression of additive genetic variance was independent of pH treatments, and all traits were significantly heritable (survival: h2 approximately 0.08; deformities: h2 approximately 0.26; body size: h2 approximately 0.12; body shape: h2 approximately 0.14). Likewise, nonadditive genetic contributions to variation in all traits were significant, independent of pH treatments and typically of magnitude similar to the additive genetic effects. Maternal effects were large for all traits, especially for viability itself, and their expression was partly dependent on the environment. In the case of body size, the maternal effects were mediated largely through egg size. In general, the results give little evidence for the conjecture that environmental stress created by low pH would impact strongly on the genetic architecture of fitness-related traits in frogs, and hamper adaptation to stress caused by acidification. The low heritabilities and high dominance contributions conform to the pattern typical for traits subject to relatively strong directional selection.

Latitudinal divergence of common frog (Rana temporaria) life history traits by natural selection: evidence from a comparison of molecular and quantitative genetic data.

The relative roles of natural selection and direct environmental induction, as well as of natural selection and genetic drift, in creating clinal latitudinal variation in quantitative traits have seldom been assessed in vertebrates. To address these issues, we compared molecular and quantitative genetic differentiation between six common frog (Rana temporaria) populations along an approximately 1600 km long latitudinal gradient across Scandinavia. The degree of population differentiation (QST approximately 0.81) in three heritable quantitative traits (age and size at metamorphosis, growth rate) exceeded that in eight (neutral) microsatellite loci (FST = 0.24). Isolation by distance was clear for both neutral markers and quantitative traits, but considerably stronger for one of the three quantitative traits than for neutral markers. QST estimates obtained using animals subjected to different rearing conditions (temperature and food treatments) revealed some environmental dependency in patterns of population divergence in quantitative traits, but in general, these effects were weak in comparison to overall patterns. Pairwise comparisons of FST and QST estimates across populations and treatments revealed that the degree of quantitative trait differentiation was not generally predictable from knowledge of that in molecular markers. In fact, both positive and negative correlations were observed depending on conditions where the quantitative genetic variability had been measured. All in all, the results suggest a very high degree of genetic subdivision both in neutral marker genes and genes coding quantitative traits across a relatively recently (< 9000 years) colonized environmental gradient. In particular, they give evidence for natural selection being the primary agent behind the observed latitudinal differentiation in quantitative traits.